21st Century Bread and Circuses
Technologists say they will solve the world's problems. Can they? It's time to take The Sniff Test.
Optimists and Pessimists
You’ve probably seen a version of the clock in the picture before. Imagining the earth’s existence as 24 hours, humans have been around for only 77 seconds. How should we interpret this?
One way is to highlight the irrelevance of humans in the grand scheme of things and rue the damage we are causing in our short time. We must reset the clock, but to what time?
An alternative is to note that nothing happened for a very long time. The earth was barren, like the rest of the universe and then life erupted. Once the guest of honour arrives, things really get going.
Proponents of the second view call themselves optimists and have an anthropomorphic or human-centred view. They highlight the miracles that mankind has created in a short space of time. They argue that given freedom and time we will conquer all our problems. Will we?
When Newcastle Led the World
In 1879, Mosely Street in Newcastle became the first street in the world to be lit by electric lights. The city had oil lamps from 1763 and gas after 1818, but was transformed in 1889 by the world’s first power stations. Less than a century and a half later and earth is always visible from space.
This is an anthropomorphic viewpoint because it is centred on the visible spectrum. Infrared radiation from earth would burn through the detectors on the James Webb Telescope from a million miles away. You can argue that humans lit up the darkness, or that darkness is a human concept with no universal meaning.
Those who are in a hurry to develop new technologies have little time for word games. Others worry about the speed of progress. Are these different starting points on the same journey, or two entirely different paths? If the latter, then no amount of arguing about the good of mankind will bring the other side round to your point of view. This is polarisation.
The Problem with Pessimism
Humans share over 99% of DNA with Neanderthals who inhabited Eurasia 350,000 years ago. To date there is no evidence that Neanderthals had language, which is thought to have evolved 150,000 years ago. Fast forward 149,850 years and we have electric street lights. A century later the internet. Things are speeding up.
David Deutsch is a leading proponent of human exceptionalism. He argues that ingenuity, if given the conditions to flourish, will solve any problems that the laws of physics allow. We will explore the universe, just not yet.
We wanted flying cars; instead we got 140 characters. – Peter Thiel
Deutsch argues that knowledge comes from human creativity. Thereafter it is developed and criticised before becoming commonplace. His decades-old test for a working quantum computer is evidence and proof of this theory of knowledge. $2.35 billion was invested in private quantum technology companies in 2022.
Peter Diamandis runs competitions to encourage technology to solve problems. The X-PRIZE strapline is “crazy ideas since 1994”. These ideas embrace space and ocean exploration, life sciences, energy and the environment, and education and global development. Current prizes include tracking wildfires from space, healthy ageing and carbon removal.
Teams from 148 countries have participated, earning 893 patents and competing for a cumulative purse of over $300 million. The competition is mostly corporate nowadays because the cost of winning far exceeds the prize. Breakthrough technologies are the real reward.
In their different ways, Deutsch and Diamandis champion optimism and the belief that no problem is too great or too pressing to be solved. Both argue that slowing progress, for example by restricting access to energy, is what makes problems insoluble. While neither is overtly political, by extension environmentalists and those who constantly redistribute stand in the way of progress and will exacerbate the very problems they seek to prevent.
Pessimism is easy, lazy and infectious. Why bet on human failure when there is no prize for being right?
Don’t Envy, Use Your Imagination
Diamandis calls an AI-powered world automagical and cites examples that are coming soon. You enter a room and the lighting, music and temperature adjust to your needs. Go to a shop or restaurant and it knows what you want and has it ready. Your health is constantly monitored in your home, car and office.
This means a future of abundance. A future where there is no poverty, where people can have whatever they want in terms of goods and services. – Elon Musk
Given long enough and the right incentives then problems go away. New problems will arise and they will be solved. Fossil fuels lifted billions out of desperation but now pose a pollution problem that is being addressed. Why get in the way of what works?
Exponential technologies, whose output doubles every year, will uplift everyone on earth. Sam Altman of OpenAI talks about every person having world’s best chief of staff, then 50 experts working well together and eventually a company of 10,000. If you want to cure disease or make great art, the falling cost and rising quality of intelligence bring them in reach.
Diamandis is particularly forceful on the issue of poverty. He asks what that means when everyone has access to services that were once only available to heads of nations. He says virtually free energy and intelligence will democratise technology and demonetise society.
In Italy, 40% of people were slaves during the Roman empire. Medieval European serfs were 90% of the population and owned 15% of the land and even today the poorest half of the globe holds just 2% of the wealth.
While inequity remains, average income and wealth has soared. 3.2 billion people are middle class, earning $14,600 to $29,200 according to the World Bank and the number is estimated to rise to 5.5 billion by 2030.
Diamandis markets his ideas well. He renames the bottom billion as the rising billion and points out that 91% of the world’s population has a mobile phone. These people are about to be inundated with free education, entertainment, digital markets, cameras, videos, books, music, social networks and access to artificial intelligence.
Finally he waves his magic wand and says we are in striking distance of ubiquitous clean water, nutritious food, affordable housing, personalised education, top-tier medical care and non-polluting energy. Don’t look around with envy, but marvel at what you’ve already got. See how far we have come and imagine how much more is in touching distance given the exponential pace of progress.
Belief, Awe and Random Data
I’m optimistic but I recognise that belief is at the heart of most controlling systems.
Anything is possible if a person believes. – Mark 9:23
Religion is anthropomorphic and the elevation of science during the Enlightenment was a means of challenging organised faith by exploring the world beyond humans. Theocracies persist in countries that were never enlightened.
I’m in awe of scientific progress but I also fear our tech overlords shower us with bread and circuses. Look at the free stuff we’re giving you; why do you need money?
Happiness is relative and we compare ourselves to those around us, not thousands of miles away. It’s patronising for the very wealthy to advise us to practise gratitude and wait while they get round to fixing our problems.
I’m less keen on random data. With eight billion people on the planet and 91% having phones that means 720 million do not. That’s three-quarters of Diamandis’ rising billion who aren’t rising. Smartphones and telecom contracts are not on his list of things that will be free.
The serfs may have owned 15% of the land 500 years ago but by some counts they own 5% today. This graphic from The Guardian comes complete with incendiary labelling. The paper is not in the habit of practising gratitude.
Feelings and Margaret Thatcher
This is not purely a debate between those of optimistic and pessimistic mindsets. The Biden White House looks at the abundant jobs market and falling inflation and wonders why it is behind in the polls. What do the people want?
They want more than money as a means to keep score. Telling people they are better off than ever and richer than most is no comfort when it’s expensive to live in a country. If you cannot afford a house, if the local school is on an Ofsted watchlist and you must wait four hours for an ambulance, you feel poor.
I've learned that people will forget what you said, people will forget what you did, but people will never forget how you made them feel. - Maya Angelou
Someone must maintain the public infrastructure. We allow the roads to crumble, bridges to crack and buildings to lie empty. This is a deliberate choice.
If you’re faced with a long wait for an ambulance, chances are you’ll vote for the person who promises to lessen the wait. Three hours is a 25% improvement. Throw more money at it.
What we need is 15 minutes waiting but this requires investment in training, vehicles, communication systems, IT and roads and will take forever. That’s longer than you’ve got.
Politicians know that. They appreciate what it takes to deliver fundamental change but assume that short electoral cycles mean they will not be rewarded for taking a long view. They also know they are storing up problems but hope to survive their term before those problems come to a head. It took mountains of rubbish in the streets and unburied dead to usher in Thatcher.
The Politicians’ Dilemma
It is argued that the peak of democracy came immediately after the Second World War. People and parties united to rebuild the country and provide free healthcare, pensions and a welfare state. Unity of purpose is crucial.
Inequality of wealth, health and services means disunity and this leads to polarised politics. The rich see no reason to change, literally as the problems of others are invisible, while a rising number of the rest are discontent. Parties of what The Guardian calls the far right are on the rise.
The media likes to dress this up as an immigration issue, much as they did with Brexit. It’s a protest vote. Immigration may be one issue that motivates members of a protest movement, but there are many others. Successful movements, such as Brexit and the Trump campaign, find the exposed nerve endings of enough people to create a winning coalition.
The question is who leads that coalition in power. Successful campaigners like Boris Johnson are unsuited to leadership. Ben Hunt of Epsilon Theory argues that the same control of the narrative that gets politicians elected is necessary to govern. That’s fine until the narrative is you’re going to fix things, at which point you better be able to do it. We’ll see how forgiving of broken promises the Red Wall voters in northern England are in next year’s election.
World War Two was a fourth turning event, a crisis that destroyed so much that there was no choice but to rebuild it. There was unity of purpose that does not exist today.
David Runciman argues in The Handover that corporations and states are automatons that pursue their own ends and are capable of outliving humans. The people inside them change but the mission remains. It is beyond individuals to alter this vision of progress.
Keir Starmer could enter government committed to a ten-year infrastructure plan. Assuming his big poll lead translates to a wide margin of victory, he could ask for longer-term backing from people. But there would be little to show after a first term and hence he won’t do this.
Rishi Sunak’s office recently sent a questionnaire to my elder daughter, asking about the long-term issues she cares about. Roads and schooling were on the agenda alongside things that governments have little control over, such as inflation, quality jobs and net zero. Sunak gets a narrative to campaign on, but is there a desire to fix what must be fixed.
The Democracy of Rome
Humans have achieved great things in the 77 seconds we’ve been around. We will do greater things in even less time. But the rewards won’t be spread equally. This creates problems that politics rather than technology will solve.
The idea that progress is all assumes a democratising role for technology. This is the democracy of Rome, with 40% enslaved and the rest appeased with bread and circuses.
Free education and healthcare are not the same as power, which is concentrating in the hands of fewer people. They tell us they’re working on our problems and meanwhile to celebrate our gig economy jobs and stop thinking we’re poor.
1945 and 1979 were cathartic moments that heralded change. Starmer and Sunak know that another is coming but feel too trapped to do anything about it.