Last week Keir Starmer headed to Washington brandishing his red PM dispatch case containing what was believed to be documents for Biden to sign clearing the way for Storm Shadow missile strikes at Russia. He returned I would argue humiliated because it appears the Pentagon now has Biden's ear and told him that Russia were not bluffing about retaliatory strikes at Washington, London, Paris and Brussels and therefore the US would not provide the logistics to programme the missiles and would not support either the British or the French doing so.
This move coincides with what appears to be Russia's biggest offensive yet across the front and Ukraine appears to be crumbling.
What has this got to do with your article ?
Political commentators such as Douglas McGregor have long argued that the Pentagon has no interest in the Ukraine conflict, which it regards as a European issue only, and lobbied hard for Washington to focus on China.
Retired Colonel Lawerence Wilkerson recently said that there has been a palace coup in Washington which has seen the removal of Victoria Nuland and Lloyd Austin ascendant with the Pentagon's blessing.
Politically this makes things rather awkward, not so much for Biden but for Kamala Harris who, whilst no doubt committed to the China challenge, has nonetheless pledged to stand arm in arm with Ukraine for as long as it takes, so if Ukraine falls before November, it would likely be disastrous for Harris' election chances and hand the WH to Trump
So it comes as no surprise that the first person Starmer sought to meet after his Washington humiliation was Donald Trump in New York
It feels to me that 30 years of three way geopolitical chess is coming to an end and the game will revert to the traditional two player contest as the EU fades as a credible player with the US and China moving and counter moving, likely on the same Mackinderist Heartland lines as the Cold War.
The big change is this would mark the formal death of globalism and rise of multi polarism and that puts Europe in a very difficult position
There is a lot of interesting writing about whether the US is on the wrong side of this argument. The West is debt-fuelled consumer economy where the only policy is print more money (I know it's not literally printing money, but that's technical detail). China is a well-planned growth vehicle focused on solving challenges.
"As the Fed cuts rates and US banks issue more credit, the dollar will weaken. This allows the Chinese government to ramp up credit growth while keeping a stable dollar-yuan exchange rate. Chinese President Xi Jinping’s major fear about accelerating bank credit growth is pressure on the yuan to depreciate vs. the dollar. If the Fed prints, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) can print as well. This week the PBOC unveiled a raft of interest rate cuts across the Chinese monetary system. This is just the start; the real bazooka will come when Xi instructs banks to issue more credit."
a really excellent read thank you
Last week Keir Starmer headed to Washington brandishing his red PM dispatch case containing what was believed to be documents for Biden to sign clearing the way for Storm Shadow missile strikes at Russia. He returned I would argue humiliated because it appears the Pentagon now has Biden's ear and told him that Russia were not bluffing about retaliatory strikes at Washington, London, Paris and Brussels and therefore the US would not provide the logistics to programme the missiles and would not support either the British or the French doing so.
This move coincides with what appears to be Russia's biggest offensive yet across the front and Ukraine appears to be crumbling.
What has this got to do with your article ?
Political commentators such as Douglas McGregor have long argued that the Pentagon has no interest in the Ukraine conflict, which it regards as a European issue only, and lobbied hard for Washington to focus on China.
Retired Colonel Lawerence Wilkerson recently said that there has been a palace coup in Washington which has seen the removal of Victoria Nuland and Lloyd Austin ascendant with the Pentagon's blessing.
Politically this makes things rather awkward, not so much for Biden but for Kamala Harris who, whilst no doubt committed to the China challenge, has nonetheless pledged to stand arm in arm with Ukraine for as long as it takes, so if Ukraine falls before November, it would likely be disastrous for Harris' election chances and hand the WH to Trump
So it comes as no surprise that the first person Starmer sought to meet after his Washington humiliation was Donald Trump in New York
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c2439897mg2o
It feels to me that 30 years of three way geopolitical chess is coming to an end and the game will revert to the traditional two player contest as the EU fades as a credible player with the US and China moving and counter moving, likely on the same Mackinderist Heartland lines as the Cold War.
The big change is this would mark the formal death of globalism and rise of multi polarism and that puts Europe in a very difficult position
Thank you as always John.
There is a lot of interesting writing about whether the US is on the wrong side of this argument. The West is debt-fuelled consumer economy where the only policy is print more money (I know it's not literally printing money, but that's technical detail). China is a well-planned growth vehicle focused on solving challenges.
Mark Tinker is very good on this in his post Not a Bazooka. https://marketthinker.substack.com/p/not-a-bazooka?
A different take is in this long post by Arthur Hayes https://open.substack.com/pub/cryptohayes/p/volatility-supercycle?
The paragraph describing the bazooka is:
"As the Fed cuts rates and US banks issue more credit, the dollar will weaken. This allows the Chinese government to ramp up credit growth while keeping a stable dollar-yuan exchange rate. Chinese President Xi Jinping’s major fear about accelerating bank credit growth is pressure on the yuan to depreciate vs. the dollar. If the Fed prints, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) can print as well. This week the PBOC unveiled a raft of interest rate cuts across the Chinese monetary system. This is just the start; the real bazooka will come when Xi instructs banks to issue more credit."