A couple of comments (and thanks for the plug - I'd forgotten about that piece):
1. Bond yields remain far below 'normal' rates in US, Europe, UK, if you consider the long-term historic relationship with nominal GDP. No matter what the trajectory for s/t rates, there's no real room for bond yields to fall from here and stay down.
2. Although its role has been forgotten or superseded in the world of zero/near zero interest rates, the market is set to play a powerful role in determining outcomes. Given the way negative-productivity phenomena such as DEI and ESG have been indulged via ZIRP, there is enormous potential for equity revaluation for anyone willing and capable of extirpating it. The next Lord Hanson is somewhere, and he's about to make a mega-fortune. (Get in touch if its you - thanks).
3. The future for Europe will be determined by what happens in . . . Africa. If Africa can discover its future, it can drag a moribund Europe on its coat-tails. If it can't discover its future, the only thing which will matter will be discovering how to 'deal with the migration problem'.
Thanks Michael, these are important insights. And that's one of my favourite pieces, especially when you are approached after the first hustings.
To your last point, it would help if Europe stopped incentivising the export of carbon emissions to poorer countries, especially those that burn coal rather than gas and result in greater global emissions. Maybe better still, focus on soluble problems like water shortage, waste treatment and other things that are environmental, but not solely about on an emissions target. There is a lot of focus on biodiversity at the moment, with campaigners wishing they'd started here rather than with climate. The appeal of preserving species is higher and the things you need to do will have beneficial effects on the availability of potable water, waste management and local pollution. Climate will be a secondary beneficiary.
Long story short: pivot your environmental efforts to North Africa and solve three problems in one - poverty, migration and sustainability.
There's a genuine opportunity going begging. Developed countries should recognize that rainforested countries (ie, Amazon, Central Africa, Indonesia etc) are providing immensely important 'environmental services' to them, which have never been paid for. No wonder these countries go logging!
In the 'End of Indifference' paper for the SDP, I suggested that rather than tax the non-elite into oblivion for the sake of pointless UK net-zero, we should be working to ensure that rain-forested countries are properly and formally remunerated for their services to the environment. It ought not to be beyond the wit of science to work out just how much CO2 these forests are gobbling, and then making the appropriate transfers.
The environment gets protected, the rain-forests get proper economic protection, and - just as importantly - we stop killing ourselves with taxes and 'emissions policies' which have not worked in the past, are not working now, and for which there is no reasonable expectation of them working in the future.
When the SDP storms to power. . . . maybe we can do it.
A couple of comments (and thanks for the plug - I'd forgotten about that piece):
1. Bond yields remain far below 'normal' rates in US, Europe, UK, if you consider the long-term historic relationship with nominal GDP. No matter what the trajectory for s/t rates, there's no real room for bond yields to fall from here and stay down.
2. Although its role has been forgotten or superseded in the world of zero/near zero interest rates, the market is set to play a powerful role in determining outcomes. Given the way negative-productivity phenomena such as DEI and ESG have been indulged via ZIRP, there is enormous potential for equity revaluation for anyone willing and capable of extirpating it. The next Lord Hanson is somewhere, and he's about to make a mega-fortune. (Get in touch if its you - thanks).
3. The future for Europe will be determined by what happens in . . . Africa. If Africa can discover its future, it can drag a moribund Europe on its coat-tails. If it can't discover its future, the only thing which will matter will be discovering how to 'deal with the migration problem'.
Thanks Michael, these are important insights. And that's one of my favourite pieces, especially when you are approached after the first hustings.
To your last point, it would help if Europe stopped incentivising the export of carbon emissions to poorer countries, especially those that burn coal rather than gas and result in greater global emissions. Maybe better still, focus on soluble problems like water shortage, waste treatment and other things that are environmental, but not solely about on an emissions target. There is a lot of focus on biodiversity at the moment, with campaigners wishing they'd started here rather than with climate. The appeal of preserving species is higher and the things you need to do will have beneficial effects on the availability of potable water, waste management and local pollution. Climate will be a secondary beneficiary.
Long story short: pivot your environmental efforts to North Africa and solve three problems in one - poverty, migration and sustainability.
There's a genuine opportunity going begging. Developed countries should recognize that rainforested countries (ie, Amazon, Central Africa, Indonesia etc) are providing immensely important 'environmental services' to them, which have never been paid for. No wonder these countries go logging!
In the 'End of Indifference' paper for the SDP, I suggested that rather than tax the non-elite into oblivion for the sake of pointless UK net-zero, we should be working to ensure that rain-forested countries are properly and formally remunerated for their services to the environment. It ought not to be beyond the wit of science to work out just how much CO2 these forests are gobbling, and then making the appropriate transfers.
The environment gets protected, the rain-forests get proper economic protection, and - just as importantly - we stop killing ourselves with taxes and 'emissions policies' which have not worked in the past, are not working now, and for which there is no reasonable expectation of them working in the future.
When the SDP storms to power. . . . maybe we can do it.
Ben Hunt's Epsilon Theory proposed something along these lines in its Green Protocol - Proof of Plant https://www.epsilontheory.com/proof-of-plant-a-new-vision-for-crypto/