Thanks for the link Simon :) I listened to Neil Howe on Grant Williams new podcast last week and it struck me that like many historians that I rate highly as historians - Frankopan, Fergussen, Dalrymple etc, while they are excellent at drawing a thread through history, they are less good at the contemporary stuff, suffering as we all do from the vast amount of short term 'noise' obscuring the signal that only appears years hence.
I love the theory of bad times make strong men, strong men make good times etc and absolutely agree that Trump is about bringing down existing (failed) institutions, but I see him as Chairman of a board staffed with Gen X executives. Trump isn't behaving like a boomer President, but a Gen X one and the real drivers are the grown up Thatcher's kids (in UK parlance).
You are correct Mark, as the theory talks of a bellicose "gray champion" returning to lead the nation through the crisis of the Fourth Turning. Trump is the right age, but is a peacemaker and proud of his record of not going to war.
In the theory, it is the failure of the individualistic and self-sufficient Gen X (or equivalent) leaders that heralds the gray champion. As a Gen Xer, I always felt a mix of shame and anger with that argument. The narrative would be more consistent if the attempted radicalism of the current administration fails and then we get a Boomer back, rattling his/her sabre at China. That would mean waiting till 2028, there would be no Hundred Year Pivot podcast and Neil Howe would have to stay out of the limelight.
You remind me that I must stop calling the Fourth Turning a theory. It is impossible to prove until after the fact and therefore a framework for understanding rather than a predictive mechanism.
Thanks for the link Simon :) I listened to Neil Howe on Grant Williams new podcast last week and it struck me that like many historians that I rate highly as historians - Frankopan, Fergussen, Dalrymple etc, while they are excellent at drawing a thread through history, they are less good at the contemporary stuff, suffering as we all do from the vast amount of short term 'noise' obscuring the signal that only appears years hence.
I love the theory of bad times make strong men, strong men make good times etc and absolutely agree that Trump is about bringing down existing (failed) institutions, but I see him as Chairman of a board staffed with Gen X executives. Trump isn't behaving like a boomer President, but a Gen X one and the real drivers are the grown up Thatcher's kids (in UK parlance).
You are correct Mark, as the theory talks of a bellicose "gray champion" returning to lead the nation through the crisis of the Fourth Turning. Trump is the right age, but is a peacemaker and proud of his record of not going to war.
In the theory, it is the failure of the individualistic and self-sufficient Gen X (or equivalent) leaders that heralds the gray champion. As a Gen Xer, I always felt a mix of shame and anger with that argument. The narrative would be more consistent if the attempted radicalism of the current administration fails and then we get a Boomer back, rattling his/her sabre at China. That would mean waiting till 2028, there would be no Hundred Year Pivot podcast and Neil Howe would have to stay out of the limelight.
You remind me that I must stop calling the Fourth Turning a theory. It is impossible to prove until after the fact and therefore a framework for understanding rather than a predictive mechanism.